SEPTEMBER 2017 AREA RENTAL REPORT

For the past two months, rent per square foot has held constant at the 12-month average of 77¢.   This translates to average September rent of $1,027 which is $37 under the 12-month average for total rent. 

These rent statistics are calculated from NTREIS data on properties leased in Abilene, Texas during September 2017. Thirteen months of data is summarized by schools and zip code, to identify rental trends across this period. 

Given that rent seems to remain largely unchanged as we finish 2017, I decided to take a different tack on Abilene-area rental data.  To complement this monthly summary, I decided to look back at rents over the last twelve months and focus on attributes that make a rent house appealing. 

With this in mind, I estimated a linear regression to identify factors that are meaningful to tenants.  Initially, I included factors like pools, garage parking, fenced yards, lot size and willingness to accepts pets as attributes that might entice tenants.  I discovered that none of these factors closed the deal. 

What did attract tenants are basic conveniences.  The wanted new houses, with a comfortable mix of bedrooms and bathrooms, covered parking of any description and schools.  These estimations are akin to the rent estimator embedded in our website at www.realabilene.com.  Property details for single-family homes viewed on our brokerage website automatically calculate an estimation for rent based on these factors. 

Using this historical data, all homes start at a base rent of $560.  Every square foot of leasable space adds rent at a decreasing rate.  A 100 increase in square footage adds $33.13/month in rent for an 1,100 sqft home, but only adds $7.23 for a 2300 sqft home.  Age detracts from rent at a decreasing rate.  Just like when you drive a new car off the lot, the first 5 years reduces rent by $74.13, but a home that increases from 65 to 70 years only loses 81¢ per month. Every bedroom adds $94, every full bath adds $163, and each covered parking space adds $42. 

Elementary school district completes the estimation of rent landlords can charge.  Martinez, Ortiz, and Reagan elementary schools are statistically insignificant in explaining rent.  In the case of these schools, this may suggest that securing basic needs like housing comes before other considerations like school.  Martinez, Reagan and Ortiz serve large populations of economically disadvantaged students.  Options limited by diminished income may explain why choice poses no statistically relevant contribution to monthly rent for homes in these districts.   

 Wylie Elementary posts the greatest contribution to monthly rent of $334. Our three school for which choice might be limited by income receive the smallest contribution from their elementary school. All elementary neighborhoods offer the following contributions along with the percent economically disadvantaged and their 2017 TEA Accountability scores.

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The contribution of elementary school to rent was correlated with the percent of economically disadvantaged students and the 2017 TEA Accountability scores for each campus.  There is a significant negative correlation between rent and the percent economically disadvantaged and lesser, but positive correlation between rent and TEA Accountability scores.

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Want to try using this information yourself to forecast rent?  We've devised a rent calculator based on this econometric estimation to calculate projected revenue for your rental.

According to NTREIS, 78 single-family homes leased in September 2017.  This is down 10 units from the previous month. These units leased at, on average, for 77¢/square foot and measured 1,334 square feet.  Consequently, these leases are estimated to deliver a value of $80,120 to the Abilene economy in September 2017.  Considering the coming 12 months and leases executed during August 2017, these leases potentially account for a $961,440 annual contribution to Abilene’s economy.